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September 24, 2007 | by  | in News |
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VUWSA Election Odds 2007

Opinion by Nick Archer

Well here it is: the Salient odds guide for the 2007 VUWSA election. By now you will be voting and remember upsets can happen and that’s when a smart bet can pay off. The Salient totalisator has come up with the following dividends for the VUWSA election races.

Race One President:

Joel Cosgrove: $1.95; Great barrier draw (campaigned well, banner up early in the Quad, large well designed posters, seen everywhere, blogged everywhere, actually had a visible campaign), strong form (Activities Officer to Education Vice President and champing at the bit for a higher placing) and has underestimated support base as witnessed by taking the lead on the Salient online poll (103). Is clearly the favourite to beat for the biggest sweepstakes prize at VUWSA.
Lukas: $2.40; Out of the blocks early (campaigned hard early on, but may have peaked too soon as chalking, slick website and Muppet video at lectures may prove to be counter productive), pulls at the reins and misdirected by jockeys with unneeded emphasis on cutting funding to clubs and rep groups, prone to being ganged up upon in the home straight by those clubs and rep groups en masse. A smart bet for those who like a battling long shot that never gives up in the final straight, if he can get out wide he could prove to be a strong finisher. Lukas ended up last on the Salient online poll at midnight last Thursday with 60 votes.
Geoff Hayward: $2.50; Worst barrier draw (out of the blocks too slow, no posters visible, no chalk, no banners, no websites, no YouTube videos, no promises he cannot keep and basically no campaign…). You cannot count him out of the race, as he caused a great upset last year but is up against it this time around. For the loyal, a lazy $5 bet cannot go too far on Geoff the Maori. Geoff finished second on the Salient online poll at 64 votes.

Race Two Vice President (Education):

Paul Brown: $1.55; Hard to beat, bogans, Tuiheads and pirates as the jockeys on this SalientTV star.
Mike Bridge: $5.50; Not one to be intimidated in the home straight, fitness over such a long race will be an issue.

Race Three Vice President (Welfare):

Melissa Barnard: $1.20; Tough to beat this popular favourite with all the punters.
Anna Duggan: $7.50; This mare is up for a tough race but has persevered enough to enter the same race twice running.

Race Four Treasurer:

No bets available, as this wouldn’t be very responsible for the position beyond reproach, which is the VUWSA Treasurer. But illegal bookies are offering odds of 2-1 for Neilson and 15-1 for O’Rourke.

Race Five International Officer:

William Wu: $1.50; Chinese by birth, but is running here again a lot stronger than last year.
Bradley Jacques: $5.50; Too many anti A-Team votes could spoil this globe hugging Pegasus’ chances.

Race Six Environment Officer:

Mark Newton: $1.00; Such a sure thing in this Gecko supported position that it’s not worth a bet.
Cameron Cotter: $1000; You have to admire his perseverance, is heavily up against it in this race.

Race Seven Women’s Rights Officer:

Aimee Sanders: $1.85; Hate to say it but blonde, right wing mares often win this race even if they don’t support feminism.
Georgie “Glitter” Dickson: $1.85; Not exactly a filly as she had a short stint in the race earlier in the year.
Nikki Grath: $50.00; A filly who is completely unknown to the punters and tipsters.

Race Eight Queer Rights Officer:

Rachael Wright: $1.25; This queer mare is the one to beat, well groomed with a pretty mane, but is no fool and can easily run them down in the home straight.
Mark Wright: $3.50; Good training ground for this youngster, strong race as part of the Gay Team.
Sam Archer: $1000; Late entrant, could be an inquiry from UniQ if this one makes it over the line ahead of the others.

Race Nine General Exec:

The A-Team stables could clean up big time here as there are no vote-splitting possible due to the large field. Five placings are on offer so expect to see them get a quinella or trifecta.
Melissa Barnard: $1.00; Could be an early scratching should she win Welfare VP.
Bernard-Bernard Galaxy $1.50; Doesn’t train and doesn’t even have a stable. But is cool and an incumbent Activities Officer.
Stefan Tyler: $1.75; Just like Boxer in Animal Farm does, he works hard as an Education Officer and is keen to prove that this old horse will not be going to the knackers this year.
Christopher Faulkes: $1.75; From the A-Team stables.
Christopher Smith: $1.85; From the Beta Omega Chi stables.
Sonny Thomas: $1.85; From the Labour Party stables.
Daniel Parkinson: $1.85; From the A-Team stables.
Joe McClure: $2.50; From the A-Team stables.
Seamus Brady: $2.50; From the Labour Party Stables.
Mike Heine: $2.50; From the A-Team stables.
Paul Smith: $2.50; From the A-Team stables.
Katie De Roo: $5.00; From the Labour Party stables.
Fiona McDonald: $7.50; From the Labour Party stables.
Robert Latimer: $15.00; Unknown quantity.

Race Ten Council:

Chris Bishop: $1.50; From the richest stables.
Sonny Thomas: $2.00; Going for a double.
Jordan Williams: $3.50; Broke away from Bishop’s stables.
Zeb Harland: $157.50; Unknown form from this horse.

Race Eleven Publications Committee:

There are two placings available in this race.
Matt Davis $1.65; From the VBC stables.
Milan Magan $1.85; Certainly talked about by a lot of tipsters.
Jordan King $3.50; You never know with this race, so could place here.
Kerry O’Connor: $1000; Complete rank outsider.

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  1. VUWSA Election Odds « Renascent Exegete | September 28, 2007
  1. The odds look reasonable to me. Not bad as a prediction of the election result. I wouldn’t call Hayward beating Kelly last year an upset, and think you rate Joel a little to highly (though I believe he is more likely to win than the other two candidates) and Hayward slightly to low. I would be surprised if barnard gets the general exec position, given the historical experience of neilson and hu Jia last elections for general exec, and the trend of people to give only one vote for a candidate could hurt Sonny Thomas as well.

  2. peteremcc says:

    Where’s Hugh McCaffrey?

    No relation btw…

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