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February 5, 2008 | by  | in Online Only |
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Big Ambitions

The first blog of they politically action packed year of 2008. This year where have a whole lot of cool stuff happening around the world and in our own back yard.

As I sit here and watch the news we have TV3’s first poll of the year. If it had not been obvious before that the battle that will consume this country over the coming months will be close. According to the poll, Labour is sitting on 35% while National is on 49% (I must’ve gotten mixed up with the number of seats earlier).

Tomorrow is Waitangi day. Traditionally a politically charged holiday, we have already seen some strange wranglings by National. John Key meeting Tame Iti, walking hand in hand with Titewhai Harawira… what is the world coming to?

The Beehive

Today/tommorow is also Super Tuesday in the race for the nomination for the American president. Most people I have talked to look blankly at me. I’m so excited. I can’t wait to hear the results roll in.

This year marks the general election in NZ, the Presidential election in the USA, a legislative election in Belize, a general election maybe held in Pakistan, Russian Presidential election, Republic of China Presidential elections, 20th Nato Summit, 60 years of Israel being a country, Dominican Republic has presidential elections, legislative election in Romania. We have ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Darfur, Sub Saharan Africa, the Middle East. The Olympics in Beijing, global warming debates, etcetera…

Very very exciting.

So heres my political predictions for 2008:

  • Helen Clark will win a historic fourth term.
  • The Maori Party will win all but one of the Maori seats (not sure which one Labour will hold)
  • Hillary Clinton will win the nomination for the Democrats and go on to win the US election.
  • Polls will continue to be flawed *cough*
  • Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton will be included in a leaders debate.
  • The rugby world cup to be held here will become more divisive than race and tax issues.

Anyhows…

I’ll post something a bit later about Super Tuesday (hell yeah!)

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The editor of this fine rag for 2009.

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  1. Politics » Big Ambitions | February 5, 2008
  2. Salient » Change? Yes we can. | February 6, 2008
  1. peteremcc says:

    Welcome back.

    44%+61% = 101%
    tommorow = tomorrow

    Keep up the good work! ;)

  2. Angry Toenail says:

    I don’t entirely agree with your predictions, but it’ll be an interesting year nonetheless.

  3. Spell edit says:

    “Welcome back.

    44%+61% = 101% [edit: 105%]
    tommorow = tomorrow

    Keep up the good work! ;)”

    You forgot:
    Tama Iti = Tame Iti

  4. Jackson Wood says:

    It was my first post, and i am working on a lap top. Next time I will endevour to ensure all statistics that I make up ad to 100%(ish)

    I’ll also fix the spelling errors now. Sigh…

  5. “The Maori Party will win all but one of the Maori seats”

    hmm, this means they gotta pick up two out of i) Ikaroa-Rawhiti (the East Coast), ii) Tainui (Waikato) and iii) Te Tai Tonga (the South Island). The Maori Party have strong support in i) and ii), but they’re up against Minister of Maori Affairs Parekura Horomia in i), and Nanaia Mahuta in ii). Both are high-profile MPs and both will fight tooth and nail to hold onto their seats. I can’t see the Maori Party unseating Horomia, if only because voters will want to keep a current (and potentially ongoing) Cabinet Minister in their pocket.

    Electorare iii), the South Island, isn’t exactly a Maori Party stronghold (most of the issues they focus on are not prominent down south), but the incumbent Labour MP – Mahara Okeroa – isn’t so high profile. If there’s a “soft target” out of the three sitting Labour Maori MPs, it would be Okeroa, however the Maori Party would first have to build their South Island presence.

    So I think you’re right that Labour will retain at least one Maori seat, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they retain two or even three… to win any of the three Labour Maori seats, the Maori Party will have to run some damn fine candidates.

  6. peteremcc says:

    Tristan,

    It was announced today that Derek Fox is seeking the Maori Party candidacy against Parekura.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4387308a6160.html

    Note, he did very well against Parekura in 1999 as an independent.

  7. Tristan says:

    that will indeed by an interesting fight… perhaps one of the regrettable side-effects of MMP is that we don’t see these significant one-on-one political challenges so much – and we don’t get to see a Prime Minister thrown totally out of parliament by losing his seat (like John Howard). It can still happen on occasion – Tauranga being a case in point – but it’s the upcoming Maori electorate contests where we’ll see some real contest. Having said that, a man like Fox will be more interested in delivering ends than in fighting for votes. I hope.

  8. Jackson Wood says:

    Over the past three years the Maori Party has put in a hell of a lot of ground work at the electorate level. They have done damn well for a new party and consolidated their hold and made reaches into the Labour/Ratana relationship. I also think it is likely that Maori voters this time round will be less likely to split there votes, with a greater proportion giving the Maori party both ticks. I would like to see more competition in the Maori seats. D Fox running can only be a good thing for the Maori Party.

  9. Jackson Wood says:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4391921a6160.html

    I don’t think I am THAT confident about my prediction to lay down that much money on it. I guess it is one way of gaining publicity for a party,spending a whole lot of money, and eluding the grasp of the EFA.

  10. peteremcc says:

    I wonder if a betting place offering good or bad odds on a party could be considered encouraging someone to (or not) vote for a party?

  11. Nick Archer says:

    Billary will only win nomination through super delegates and that would leave the Democrats in pretty bad shape (1968 all over again) as Obama will win more of the remaining States and has momentumn.

    Clark will just have to rely on her skills at MMP, don’t count out Key as he is proving to be less arrogant than Brash and already putting out the feelers for coalition partners (which is only way National can ever be govt again) and he could prove to be as adept at MMP as Bolger was in 96.

    I expect Derek Fox to be pretty prominant in the media for his bid for a maori seat,
    World Cup will only be divisive if we lose again, Dunne and Anderton will be in a debate but one or both of TV One or 3 will have a seperate head to head against Clark and Key (they did it with Bolger, Shipley, English and Brash so expect the same i.e. one multi party debate, one minnow party debate i.e. Winston, Rodney, Fitzsimons etc and a head to head Presidential style debate with Red vs Blue again)…

    Anyway keep blogging…

  12. Dave says:

    Good blog. However, didnt know the Rugby World Cup isto be held here in New Zelaand – or anywhere – this year. News to me. Mind you, theres more chance of it being held here than Helen Clark winning the next election.

  13. I find televised political leaders debates immensely frustrating. Politicians pay lip service to the issues, and skim over thier perspectives. They have little benefit, and usually only unintended consequences.

    The former United Future party could probably base their entire success in the 2002 election off the “worm”

  14. Jackson, your spelling and punctuation is terrible. Please bring me some hot cross buns.

  15. Nic says:

    Two posts by two Salient stuff in 08

    Both pretty blah

    This post gets a grade of D

    Mainly because you can’t spell tomorrow.

  16. Jackson Wood says:

    Hey Nic, I don’t care. Narny Narny Narny, your first sentence does not make much sense either. Go take you pent up pubescent rage and channel it into a viable pastime. I suggest masturbation.

  17. Nic says:

    Just when I thought Salient couldn’t get any worse, we have jackasses who cry and use insults obsolete since 1992

    Aaaaaah

    Looking forward to this year

    LOSER :)

  18. And so it begins, ahh good old salient.

  19. Nic says:

    It just makes me angry that I have to pay for this, really

  20. Derek says:

    Oh Jackson… If you feel the need to publish something then you need to realise you are tacitly accepting our right to comment on your work. Reacting to a negative comment with insults is immature.

    You will always get naysayers and nitpickers but reacting will only tarnish your writing.

    Remember that arguing on the internet is like running in the special olympics: You may win, but you are still retarded.

    __
    Diana Ross’ husband died… fell while climbing in South Africa. I guess there is a mountain high enough.
    __

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