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May 7, 2008 | by  | in Online Only |
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Obama slips the Chain

Barrack Obama has finally clawed back a state in the latest round of voting for the democratic nomination in North Carolina. Winning it convincingly by 14 points over Clinton, with 99% of the vote so far counted. Its broken a deadlock for Obama, who has had a rough couple of months. The Jeremiah Wright scandal has been hurting his public image.

His response to the crazy antics of his ex-pastor of twenty years, has come across to many voters as managed, scripted, and choreographed. A bit of a dent in the image that Obama has been trying to foster as the ‘new kid on the block’ untained by Washington’s inevitable wheelings and dealings.

Clinton has also not given up hope. Like a fluffy terrier on P she is nipping at the heels of Obama every darn step of the way. Refusing to give in. The State of Indiana, which also was holding its vote, is too close to call between the two, but it is projected that Clinton has the narrowest of leads of Obama.

At this stage in the race however, things are getting desperate. Not just for the individual prospects of the two democratic candidates, but also for the evential democratic nominee. The republicans are watching the end of the race with increasing delight as the see the two opponents, who are both individually strong, annihilate each other in a war of attrition. The longer the democratic nomination takes, the better John McCain starts to look. He’s had breathing space, and also an oppurtunity to document and analyse every single attack and response from Obama or Clinton.

Some of this blame perhaps could be placed on Clinton’s shoulders. Many superdelegates who would have put thier flag in the sand earlier have not done so, due to her dogged determination to stay in the race. This has meant that the democratic camp has continued to stay divided. The longer that continues the less time there is before the election for the Democrats to consolidate thier position and present a united front.

So the race as it stands is still at a fucking stalemate. And that helps no-one. Except John McCain.

Current Delegate Count

 

Obama — 1,823

Clinton — 1,676

Magic Number Required for the Nomination — 2,025

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About the Author ()

Conrad is a very grumpy boy. When he was little he had a curl in the middle of his forehead. When he was good, he was moderately good, but when he was mean he was HORRID. He likes guns, bombs and shooting doves. He can often be found reading books about Mussolini and tank warfare. His greatest dream is to invent an eighteen foot high mechanical spider, which has an antimatter lazer attached to its back.

Comments (16)

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  1. Nick Archer says:

    I expect Obama to become the presumptive nominee as he is way closer to the magic number of 2025 but its grinding on pretty exhaustively! West Virginia (suits Hillary but only 28 delegates) next week then Kentucky (51 delegates, suits Hillary) and Oregan (52 delegates, suits Obama) so what you will see is a tracking of diminishing scales of delegates required with Obama eventually coming over the finish line.

    Super delegates as everyone knows by now will be crucial and Obama is getting endorsed at higher rate than Hillary and he needs less than 200 total delegates to get to that magic number whereas she looks less likely as she will have to swing a huge percentage of the remaining super delegates and her reasons look less valid with today’s results considering the last 2 weeks of the campaign Obama looks better than he did a few days ago…

  2. Does the title of this blog read as a racial pun to anyone else?

  3. You only see what you want to see Laura.

  4. Gibbon says:

    No, actually Conrad, I agree with Laura. That’s exactly how I read it, too.

  5. “slips the chain” he could have meant slipping the chains of oppression and fulfilling his destiny as the first real black presidential nominee, or he could just be continuing his casual racism. I’ll let you decide

  6. or breaking the metaphorical chains that were holding him back these past two months. Pennsylvanian, Jeremiah Wright etc…

    You guys are so racist, geeeez.

  7. Brunswick says:

    It’s not racist if you’re talking about bicycles.

  8. Matthew_Cunningham says:

    “To a hammer, everything is a nail…”

  9. Nick Archer says:

    Conrad “or breaking the metaphorical chains that were holding him back these past two months. Pennsylvanian, Jeremiah Wright etc…”

    Yes that’s the tone the media are making, also they are commenting about Bill’s Gloomy looking face behind Hillary’s manic energy during her Indiana victory speech. Tone beginning to change in media, key words “total lead” (Obama), “the long goodbye” (Clinton), “survivor” (Obama, remember Bill went through Gennifer Flowers in 92, she was his Jeremiah Wright), “is the end in sight?”, “super delegates expected to begin weighing in” and so on. And my Favourite on CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/) “Superdelegates await Clinton’s next move” with a half gloomy and half optimistic photo of her (see what I mean!!)

    It seems that the media picks up on these themes (or memes!) and recycles them constantly, Pennsylvania did it for Clinton (margin of 9-10% helped her raise money to stay in the race) and new tone change (as expected) leads down yet another road.

    Next few days will be crucial, the key is superdelegates:

    Clinton has 267 and Obama 257, if Obama in next few days passes Clinton in superdelegates or even catches up then it is game over. Clinton’s strategy (or Harold Ickes her superdelegates lobyist) will be to counter any moves by using stored superdelegates to pledge. But the danger there is the panic tone (e.g. “we really need to step back and select a nominee who will…” etc) of some of them could be counter productive and any misssteps could start a flood of superdelegates to Obama
    If she gets any defections then that will be fatal as the ship will be seen to be sinking and the superdelegates are all waiting for someone to take the lead before they turn into a flood of endorsements either way…

    And Obama has extended his TOTAL lead in delegates by 159 delegates to be on 1845 by most estimates and Clinton is now languishing way behind on 1686 (which psychologically looks bigger than it really is because she is 2 hundred digits behind ie he is way up in the 1800’s and she’s stuck in the 1600’s), and with the pool of delegates halving with each major primary date makes it near impossible for her to catch up. Obama only needs around 180 more delegates whereas she needs around 338… NEAR IMPOSSIBLE! As her arguments to superdelegates that looked realistic and valid 2 weeks ago after Pennsylvania carry less weight…

    Also expect the Dems in October/November to reply to the Jerimiah Wright saga by attacking right back at McCain over his endorsement by popular televangelist John Hagee (preacher who calls the Catholic Church the Whore of Babylon)…

  10. Superior Mind says:

    Hillary scares me. She looks like her skull is trying to leap out of her face and bite someone.

  11. Nick Archer says:

    Yeah CNN did pick a pretty grim photo there for their website…

  12. Nick Archer says:

    Saw this today which shows “the world of instant political analysis” that now pervades this Democratic race: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/us/politics/07cnd-pundits.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

  13. Harry Jones says:

    I honestly believe that Clinton is going to as hard as possible to get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated. He’s currently around 160 delegates away from 2025 and if he gets around half of the remaining pledged delegates yet to be allocated he will be near around 60 delegates required. Add the growing number of superdelegates supporting him daily and he will be very near the magic mark by June.

    Even if Clinton manages to get the Michigan delegates seated in perhaps a 40/60 advantage for her (Obama wasn’t on the ticket) it still takes Obama over the top regardless. This was being discussed as a possible solution to the Michigan issue. Same story with the Florida delegates. He lost by a significant margin (17%) however he would probably still go over the 2025 mark. Thus it’s inevitable that he will be the nominee.

    I think it is possibly good for the democratic chances in the general that all of the scandals about Obama are already out in the open (hopefully, but who knows what Fox will dig up) while McCain’s scandals haven’t been probed very rigorously.

    What’s your opinion on the possibility of a joint ticket with Obama/Clinton? I really don’t think it can happen after all the shit she has been slinging. I personally think John Edwards is pretty hot, or Anderson Cooper

  14. Anderson Cooper is probably the sexiest Political reporter on TV right now. With Quest being the kinkiest.

    Obama/Clinton ticket aint gonna happen. The campaign so far has been so dirty, that any good republican strategist would just use their history to drive a wedge between the two. Severely harming any decent chance of democratic unity, or at least the perception of it.

  15. Nick Archer says:

    Yeah Anderson Cooper gets around everywhere (Hurricane Katrina etc…) surprised he’s not in Myanmar. CNN is a strange beast, corporate but with roughage around the edges (not surprising as Ted Turner is that too!), I usually just log into their website for the Political Ticker which has been REALLY ferral between Obama/Clinton supporters.

    To get the cream of the crop of CNN it’s best to tune into the Situation Room.
    Quest is pretty interesting (at times) I also like Jack Cafferty as he is no nonsense old fashioned dem, he plays the role of old crank that Blitzer turns to first for comment.

    And watching their election nights coverages are handy with John King with his special map that he moves around (BIG improvement on Nigel Roberts over here)…

    Wolf Blitzer is ok, but annoying at same time (he really LABOURS some wedge points when he interviews). The panel they have are usually good. CNN has it’s own niche reporters following the candidates, Dana Bash follows McCain and has been boring s far (that will change when focus is on November) and some Fran Mold lookalike (name escapes me but she won some big journalism award for her coverage of New Hampshire) follows the Dems….

    I actually find Sky News (Australian version) panel/analysis (when they have it) to be pretty sharp too, as the political scientists they have usually know what they are talking about (except for one old cudger who predicted right after Super Tuesday that Clinton would win on the back of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he didn’t see the 10-0 bounce that Obama got)…

    BBC is also pretty good, forget Fox News (don’t have to tell anyone that!) and someone told me that Al Jazerra is fun to watch when they do the election coverage!

    Clinton is damaged goods (her own and her campaign teams doing) so she won’t be a good VP candidate.

    As for Florida and Michigan, they should have some delegates at the convention for party business, but it SHOULD not impact on the nominee race as the race is effectively over (and they broke the agreed to by all the candidates campaign rules anyway). If Clinton tries to the issue it as one LAST grab for the nomination she will alienate a LOT of people. Her spin machine needs to wind down…

    She should and will stay in the race till at least West Virginia, and if she can raise some money (unlikely however) stay till June 3 to allow the campaign to wind down with dignity for the sake of her party. If she ignores the wind down process then the fears of many that she is willing to destroy the party if she is not the nominee will be confirmed. Thankfully in the last few days she is sounding like she is winding down…

  16. Harry Jones says:

    Fox News is good for a laugh. I reckon some of their analysis is alright on Primary coverage.

    You know Quest got arrested? Jack Cafferty looks so fucken grumpy

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