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August 19, 2013 | by  | in Opinion |
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Why National Will Win a Third Term

It may seem like, on the surface, the odds are stacked against National. Winning a third term is hard in our political system, but National has a better record than Labour. National has always won a third term in government, every time they have been initially elected, since 1949. Labour has only achieved this feat twice: the very first Labour Government, and the Clark Government of last decade. This historical trend points towards the inherently conservative nature of the New Zealand electorate, leading to long periods of National government. There is no reason to think that this has changed.

That said, the game since 1996 has been played by different rules. The electoral system we have is stacked against National. The left has a tendency to splinter due to moronic conflicts about the nature of socialism. On the left in New Zealand we have Labour, the Greens, New Zealand First and Mana. Under first-past-the-post (FPP), only Labour would get in. Under MMP, Labour brings all their crazy friends to the party, with the potential to form a government. The thing is, I don’t think they will in 2014.

The answer lies in two things. The first is National’s strength. No government has ever polled so well in their fifth year in government. National polls between 45–49 per cent across all polls on a regular basis. Then there is the strength of National’s leader, John Key. The Government rises or falls with John Key. Key made National electable again. Despite Fonterra, the GCSB debacle and, umm, snapper quotas, the Prime Minister still continues to dominate the preferred–Prime Minister polling. The Prime Minister last Wednesday on Campbell Live demonstrated that he is still the master of the political day, dominating the real leader of the Opposition, John Campbell, in a one-on-one interview.

The second is Labour’s overwhelming, crippling, weakness. The Labour Party is a doomed ship being navigated towards the rocks of the 2014 election, by Captain Mumblefuck, David Shearer. Shearer, I am sure, is a good man, but it takes a lot more than being a good man to guide Labour to victory. It takes political cunning, visionary policy leadership and the ability to string together a fucking coherent sentence. David Shearer can do none of these things. Shearer is Labour’s bronze medal, its compromise candidate between its warring factions. A party that cannot govern itself cannot govern New Zealand.

National always gets a third term. Labour’s weakness guarantees it.

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