Jack knows it…

Posted by Jackson Wood & filed under Blog.

Watch out Barak, the Joker’s gunna get cha…

4 Responses to “Jack knows it…”

  2. doordieforhillary

    He will probably get him in Ohio (she has an edge there) but I don’t think he will be able to do the Texas Two Step very well…

    My prediction is that Clinton will win Ohio (by small margin) and Rhode Island and Obama will win Vermont and of course Texas as 60 or so of the delegates are selected by Caucus which will favor Obama and of the 120 or so primary delegates they are by districts with the lion’s share being in black neighbourhoods.

    If Hillary doesn’t get the majority of delegates from Texas (due to the voting vagaraties) she will need to win the popular vote to be able to get any spin working and of course she MUST win Ohio or she is out of the race (there’s no point in being another Mike Huckabee). Ohio is key as that is the must win state for November for both party’s. It looks to be interesting in November as McCain will probably win Florida but the Dems look better in Ohio (no matter who candidate is) with the economy doing badly there…

    and the only possible spin she can get from here on is to get momentum with wins in Ohio (and possibly Pennsylvania) and make it close in Texas and try to make a case to the party that she can win the big states, but even this strategy will be HARD as she has on the other side 11-0 and further whittling away by Obama in places like Wyoming and Missisippi and this is even before Pensylvania (so imagine Clinton possibly narrowing Obama’s tomorrow but the same gap opening up again the following week…)

    Hillary WON’T close the pledged delegates gap (barring a scandal or something more sinister happening in the Obama camp) so she has to grab the narrative back on the media’s coverage of the campaign, that is why Obama warned recently to not forget New Hampshire… And from there keep the remaining races close (or win some) and claw back some momentum in the courting of the super delegates if she is to win the nomination…

    How hollow her possible victory is depends on the perceptions created by the Obama camp and the media in regards to pledged delegates and this is DANGEROUS for her campaign as it echoes Florida in 2000 (speaking of which it could get even messier with the punished delegates Clinton won the other month there, a solution could be for a caucus to be held there and Michigan before the convention)…

    Imagine this: race riots throughout the States which make the 1968 Democratic convention look like a picnic as a Black candidate wins the popular vote (pledged delegates) while behind closed doors the party elite shut him out of the nomination (this is the only way Clinton can become the nominee if she is behind in pledged delegates).

    If Hillary loses badly tomorrow she should withdraw from the race and live to fight another day… Even if she wins she really has to take the initiative in educating the American people that super delegates are legitimate delegates she needs momentumn in those big States so she can at least say “I can win those BIG States now and I am the only candidate who can win those BIG States in November” To have any chance in November should she become the nominee she really has to put in the hard work to heal any divisions in the party or the turn out for Dems will be low and she will be another Walter Mondale…

  3. wellywoody

    I will be camped in front of the TV watching CNN tomorrow, who’d have thought that the race would have gone this far two months ago, it’s like a season of The West Wing…